The Emergence of Probability

A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference

Author: Ian Hacking

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107268850

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 5911

Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. Hacking invokes a wide intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics, and the theology of the period. He argues that the transformations that made it possible for probability concepts to emerge have constrained all subsequent development of probability theory and determine the space within which philosophical debate on the subject is still conducted. First published in 1975, this edition includes an introduction that contextualizes his book in light of developing philosophical trends. Ian Hacking is the winner of the Holberg International Memorial Prize 2009.

Strategic Analysis Of Financial Markets, The (In 2 Volumes)

Author: Moffitt Steven D

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company

ISBN: 9813143770

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 1120

View: 4784

Volume 1 of "The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets," — Framework, is premised on the belief that markets can be understood only by dropping the assumptions of rationality and efficient markets in their extreme forms, and showing that markets still have an inherent order and inherent logic. But that order results primarily from the "predictable irrationality" of investors, as well as from people's uncoordinated attempts to profit. The market patterns that result do not rely on rationality or efficiency. A framework is developed for understanding financial markets using a combination of psychology, statistics, game and gambling analysis, market history and the author's experience. It expresses analytically how professional investors and traders think about markets — as games in which other participants employ inferior, partially predictable strategies. Those strategies' interactions can be toxic and lead to booms, bubbles, busts and crashes, or can be less dramatic, leading to various patterns that are mistakenly called "market inefficiencies" and "stylized facts." A logical case is constructed, starting from two foundations, the psychology of human decision making and the "Fundamental Laws of Gambling." Applying the Fundamental Laws to trading leads to the idea of "gambling rationality" (grationality), replacing the efficient market's concept of "rationality." By classifying things that are likely to have semi-predictable price impacts (price "distorters"), one can identify, explore through data analysis, and create winning trading ideas and systems. A structured way of doing all this is proposed: the six-step "Strategic Analysis of Market Method." Examples are given in this and Volume 2. Volume 2 of "The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets" — Trading System Analytics, continues the development of Volume 1 by introducing tools and techniques for developing trading systems and by illustrating them using real markets. The difference between these two Volumes and the rest of the literature is its rigor. It describes trading as a form of gambling that when properly executed, is quite logical, and is well known to professional gamblers and analytical traders. But even those elites might be surprised at the extent to which quantitative methods have been justified and applied, including a life cycle theory of trading systems. Apart from a few sections that develop background material, Volume 2 creates from scratch a trading system for Eurodollar futures using principles of the Strategic Analysis of Markets Method (SAMM), a principled, step-by-step approach to developing profitable trading systems. It has an entire Chapter on mechanical methods for testing and improvement of trading systems, which transcends the rather unstructured and unsatisfactory "backtesting" literature. It presents a breakout trend following system developed using factor models. It also presents a specific pairs trading system, and discusses its life cycle from an early, highly profitable period to its eventual demise. Recent developments in momentum trading and suggestions on improvements are also discussed.

Statistics and Probability in High School

Author: Carmen Batanero,Manfred Borovcnik

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9463006249

Category: Education

Page: 224

View: 3162

Statistics and probability are fascinating fields, tightly interwoven with the context of the problems which have to be modelled. The authors demonstrate how investigations and experiments provide promising teaching strategies to help high-school students acquire statistical and probabilistic literacy. In the first chapter the authors put into practice the following educational principles, reflecting their views of how these subjects should be taught: a focus on the most relevant ideas and postpone extensions to later stages; illustrating the complementary/dual nature of statistical and probabilistic reasoning; utilising the potential of technology and show its limits; and reflecting on the different levels of formalisation to meet the wide variety of students’ previous knowledge, abilities, and learning types. The remaining chapters deal with exploratory data analysis, modelling information by probabilities, exploring and modelling association, and with sampling and inference. Throughout the book, a modelling view of the concepts guides the presentation. In each chapter, the development of a cluster of fundamental ideas is centred around a statistical study or a real-world problem that leads to statistical questions requiring data in order to be answered. The concepts developed are designed to lead to meaningful solutions rather than remain abstract entities. For each cluster of ideas, the authors review the relevant research on misconceptions and synthesise the results of research in order to support teaching of statistics and probability in high school. What makes this book unique is its rich source of worked-through tasks and its focus on the interrelations between teaching and empirical research on understanding statistics and probability.

International Handbook of Research in Statistics Education

Author: Dani Ben-Zvi,Katie Makar,Joan Garfield

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319661957

Category: Education

Page: 512

View: 2192

This handbook connects the practice of statistics to the teaching and learning of the subject with contributions from experts in several disciplines. Chapters present current challenges and methods of statistics education in the changing world for statistics and mathematics educators. Issues addressed include current and future challenges in professional development of teachers, use of technology tools, design of learning environments and appropriate student assessments. This handbook presents challenging and inspiring international research perspectives on the history and nature, current issues, and future directions of statistics education and statistics education research.

Probabilistic Thinking

Presenting Plural Perspectives

Author: Egan J. Chernoff,Bharath Sriraman

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 940077155X

Category: Education

Page: 747

View: 6397

This volume provides a necessary, current and extensive analysis of probabilistic thinking from a number of mathematicians, mathematics educators, and psychologists. The work of 58 contributing authors, investigating probabilistic thinking across the globe, is encapsulated in 6 prefaces, 29 chapters and 6 commentaries. Ultimately, the four main perspectives presented in this volume (Mathematics and Philosophy, Psychology, Stochastics and Mathematics Education) are designed to represent probabilistic thinking in a greater context.

Interpreting Probability

Controversies and Developments in the Early Twentieth Century

Author: David Howie

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781139434379

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 7979

The term probability can be used in two main senses. In the frequency interpretation it is a limiting ratio in a sequence of repeatable events. In the Bayesian view, probability is a mental construct representing uncertainty. This 2002 book is about these two types of probability and investigates how, despite being adopted by scientists and statisticians in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Bayesianism was discredited as a theory of scientific inference during the 1920s and 1930s. Through the examination of a dispute between two British scientists, the author argues that a choice between the two interpretations is not forced by pure logic or the mathematics of the situation, but depends on the experiences and aims of the individuals involved. The book should be of interest to students and scientists interested in statistics and probability theories and to general readers with an interest in the history, sociology and philosophy of science.

Chance and the Eighteenth-Century Novel

Realism, Probability, Magic

Author: Jesse Molesworth

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 0521191084

Category: Literary Criticism

Page: 275

View: 1785

A study of the relationship between realism, probability and chance in eighteenth-century fiction.

Public Relations Review

A Journal of Research and Comment

Author: Foundation for Public Relations Research and Education (U.S.)

Publisher: N.A


Category: Marketing

Page: N.A

View: 8365

The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning

Author: David A. Schum

Publisher: Wiley-Interscience


Category: Mathematics

Page: 545

View: 5225

From Holmes's analysis of footprints and tobacco ash to modern institutional DNA testing, evidence has formed the cornerstone of probabilistic reasoning, both in fiction and real life. Too often viewed as irrefutable, evidence, argues David Schum, is an interpretive science, refracted through the varying perspectives of subject specialty. Evaluating how evidence is discovered, arranged, and used is essential not only for drawing conclusions, but also for developing an analytical scheme that transcends the particular skew of individual disciplines. In the first textbook treatment of evidence as a science, Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning examines inferences drawn from evidence that is incomplete, inconclusive, and often imprecise. Layer by layer, the book disassembles the process of gathering, organizing, and evaluating evidence, activities that ultimately affect what conclusions are drawn from evidence and how new evidence is discovered. The book also presents a balanced account of the probabilistic process of assessing the force, strength, or weight of evidence, an examination that considers the many current views on evaluating evidence. A subject of growing interest and study, the imaginative reasoning process behind the discovery or generation of new evidence and new hypotheses, is also described. Featuring over one hundred numerical examples to illustrate the workings of various probabilistic expressions, as well as lively graphics which illuminate many of the evidential and inferential issues discussed, this is an essential working reference to every facet of the science of evidence.

The Taming of Chance

Author: Ian Hacking

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107650712

Category: Political Science

Page: 284

View: 5003

In this important study Ian Hacking continues the enquiry into the origins and development of certain characteristic modes of contemporary thought undertaken in such previous works as the best-selling The Emergence of Probability. Professor Hacking shows how by the late-nineteenth century it became possible to think of statistical patterns as explanatory in themselves, and to regard the world as not necessarily deterministic in character. In the same period the idea of human nature was displaced by a model of normal people with laws of dispersion. These two parallel transformations fed into each other, so that chance made the world seem less capricious: it was legitimated because it brought order out of chaos. Combining detailed scientific historical research with characteristic philosophic breadth and verve, The Taming of Chance brings out the relations between philosophy, the physical sciences, mathematics and the development of social institutions, and provides a unique and authoritative analysis of the 'probabilisation' of the western world.

Subject Catalog

Author: Library of Congress

Publisher: N.A



Page: N.A

View: 9497

Das fünfte Wunder

Auf der Suche nach dem Ursprung des Lebens

Author: Paul Davies

Publisher: S. Fischer Verlag

ISBN: 3105607579

Category: Self-Help

Page: 320

View: 8738

Paul Davies gibt einen genauen und abwägenden Überblick über die vorhandenen Modelle der Entstehung des Lebens und fügt eine weitere, gut belegte Hypothese hinzu, nämlich die der Lebensentstehung fern von der Erde. (Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine frühere Ausgabe.)

Pascal, Fermat und die Berechnung des Glücks

eine Reise in die Geschichte der Mathematik

Author: Keith J. Devlin

Publisher: C.H.Beck

ISBN: 9783406590993

Category: Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie - Geschichte

Page: 204

View: 1057

Der Autor stellt die Entstehung der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und den damit verbundenen Wandel des menschlichen Alltagslebens dar.