Theory of Decision under Uncertainty

Author: Itzhak Gilboa

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9780521741231

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 230

View: 6180

This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Ignorance and Uncertainty

Author: Olivier Compte,Andrew Postlewaite

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781108422024

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 320

View: 6717

Born of a belief that economic insights should not require much mathematical sophistication, this book proposes novel and parsimonious methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling, without complex mathematics. Economics has made great strides over the past several decades in modeling agents' decisions when they are incompletely informed, but many economists believe that there are aspects of these models that are less than satisfactory. Among the concerns are that ignorance is not captured well in most models, that agents' presumed cognitive ability is implausible, and that derived optimal behavior is sometimes driven by the fine details of the model rather than the underlying economics. Compte and Postlewaite lay out a tractable way to address these concerns, and to incorporate plausible limitations on agents' sophistication. A central aspect of the proposed methodology is to restrict the strategies assumed available to agents.

Notes On The Theory Of Choice

Author: David Kreps

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 0429978243

Category: Social Science

Page: 228

View: 4125

In this book, Professor Kreps presents a first course on the basic models of choice theory that underlie much of economic theory. This course, taught for several years at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, gives the student an introduction to the axiomatic method of economic analysis, without placing too heavy a demand on mathematical sophistication.The course begins with the basics of choice and revealed preference theory and then discusses numerical representations of ordinal preference. Models with uncertainty come next: First is von Neumann?Morgenstern utility, and then choice under uncertainty with subjective uncertainty, using the formulation of Anscombe and Aumann, and then sketching the development of Savage's classic theory. Finally, the course delves into a number of special topics, including de Finetti's theorem, modeling choice on a part of a larger problem, dynamic choice, and the empirical evidence against the classic models.

Making Better Decisions

Decision Theory in Practice

Author: Itzhak Gilboa

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1444336517

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 232

View: 7676

Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. • Introduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions • Presentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment • Offers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy • Explains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems • Critically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques • Includes a web resource for teachers and students

Analogies and Theories

Formal Models of Reasoning

Author: Itzhak Gilboa,Larry Samuelson,David Schmeidler

Publisher: OUP Oxford

ISBN: 0191057894

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 160

View: 3708

The book describes formal models of reasoning that are aimed at capturing the way that economic agents, and decision makers in general think about their environment and make predictions based on their past experience. The focus is on analogies (case-based reasoning) and general theories (rule-based reasoning), and on the interaction between them, as well as between them and Bayesian reasoning. A unified approach allows one to study the dynamics of inductive reasoning in terms of the mode of reasoning that is used to generate predictions.

A Theory of Case-Based Decisions

Author: Itzhak Gilboa,David Schmeidler

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9780521003117

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 199

View: 2990

This work, a paradigm for modelling decision-making under uncertainty, describes the general theory and its relationship to planning, repeated choice problems, inductive inference, and learning; and highlights its mathematical and philosophical foundations.

Decision making under uncertainty

models and choices

Author: Charles A. Holloway

Publisher: Prentice Hall


Category: Business & Economics

Page: 522

View: 5946

Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.

Repeated Games

Author: Jean-François Mertens,Sylvain Sorin,Shmuel Zamir

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 110703020X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 598

View: 5767

This landmark work significantly advances the literature on game theory with a masterful conceptual presentation of the CORE working papers published in 1994.

Frontiers of Research in Economic Theory

The Nancy L. Schwartz Memorial Lectures, 1983-1997

Author: J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9780521635387

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 274

View: 3181

'Leading economists presenting fundamentally important issues in economic theory' is the theme of the Nancy Schwartz lectures series held annually at the J. L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management of Northwestern University. Reporting on lectures delivered in the years 1983 through 1997, this collection of essays discusses economic behavior at the individual and group level and the implications to the performance of economic systems. Using non-technical language, the speakers present theoretical, experimental, and empirical analysis of decision making under uncertainty and under full and bounded rationality, the influence of economic incentives and habits, and the effects of learning and evolution on dynamic choice. Perfect competition, economic development, social insurance and social mobility, and negotiation and economic survival, are major economic subjects analyzed through our understanding of economic behavior.

The Malliavin Calculus

Author: Denis R. Bell

Publisher: Courier Corporation

ISBN: 0486152057

Category: Mathematics

Page: 128

View: 3749

This introductory text presents detailed accounts of the different forms of the theory developed by Stroock and Bismut, discussions of the relationship between these two approaches, and a variety of applications. 1987 edition.

Case-based Predictions

An Axiomatic Approach to Prediction, Classification and Statistical Learning

Author: Itzhak Gilboa,David Schmeidler

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated

ISBN: 9789814366175

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 309

View: 9342

The book presents an axiomatic approach to the problems of prediction, classification, and statistical learning. Using methodologies from axiomatic decision theory, and, in particular, the authors' case-based decision theory, the present studies attempt to ask what inductive conclusions can be derived from existing databases. It is shown that simple consistency rules lead to similarity-weighted aggregation, akin to kernel-based methods. It is suggested that the similarity function be estimated from the data. The incorporation of rule-based reasoning is discussed.

The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information

Author: Sushil Bikhchandani,Jack Hirshleifer,John G. Riley

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107433762

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 536

View: 3101

There has been explosive progress in the economic theory of uncertainty and information in the past few decades. This subject is now taught not only in departments of economics but also in professional schools and programs oriented toward business, government and administration, and public policy. This book attempts to unify the subject matter in a simple, accessible manner. Part I of the book focuses on the economics of uncertainty; Part II examines the economics of information. This revised and updated second edition places a greater focus on game theory. New topics include posted-price markets, mechanism design, common-value auctions, and the one-shot deviation principle for repeated games.

Granular Computing and Intelligent Systems

Design with Information Granules of Higher Order and Higher Type

Author: Witold Pedrycz,Shyi-Ming Chen

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9783642198205

Category: Computers

Page: 308

View: 8063

Information granules are fundamental conceptual entities facilitating perception of complex phenomena and contributing to the enhancement of human centricity in intelligent systems. The formal frameworks of information granules and information granulation comprise fuzzy sets, interval analysis, probability, rough sets, and shadowed sets, to name only a few representatives. Among current developments of Granular Computing, interesting options concern information granules of higher order and of higher type. The higher order information granularity is concerned with an effective formation of information granules over the space being originally constructed by information granules of lower order. This construct is directly associated with the concept of hierarchy of systems composed of successive processing layers characterized by the increasing levels of abstraction. This idea of layered, hierarchical realization of models of complex systems has gained a significant level of visibility in fuzzy modeling with the well-established concept of hierarchical fuzzy models where one strives to achieve a sound tradeoff between accuracy and a level of detail captured by the model and its level of interpretability. Higher type information granules emerge when the information granules themselves cannot be fully characterized in a purely numerical fashion but instead it becomes convenient to exploit their realization in the form of other types of information granules such as type-2 fuzzy sets, interval-valued fuzzy sets, or probabilistic fuzzy sets. Higher order and higher type of information granules constitute the focus of the studies on Granular Computing presented in this study. The book elaborates on sound methodologies of Granular Computing, algorithmic pursuits and an array of diverse applications and case studies in environmental studies, option price forecasting, and power engineering.


Author: Lars Peter Hansen,Thomas J. Sargent

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 1400829380

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 464

View: 3618

The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.

Interdisciplinary Applications of Agent-Based Social Simulation and Modeling

Author: Adamatti, Diana Francisca

Publisher: IGI Global

ISBN: 1466659556

Category: Computers

Page: 376

View: 9377

Social simulation can be a difficult discipline to encompass fully. There are many methods, models, directions, and theories that can be discussed and applied to various social sciences. Anthropology, sociology, political science, economy, government, and management can all benefit from social simulation. Interdisciplinary Applications of Agent-Based Social Simulation and Modeling aims to bring a different perspective to this interdisciplinary topic. This book presents current discussions and new insights on social simulation as a whole, focusing on its dangers, pitfalls, deceits, and challenges. This book is an essential reference for researchers in this field, professionals using social simulation, and even students studying this discipline.

Game Theory: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice

Breakthroughs in Research and Practice

Author: Management Association, Information Resources

Publisher: IGI Global

ISBN: 1522525955

Category: Mathematics

Page: 505

View: 1915

Developments in the use of game theory have impacted multiple fields and created opportunities for new applications. With the ubiquity of these developments, there is an increase in the overall utilization of this approach. Game Theory: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice contains a compendium of the latest academic material on the usage, strategies, and applications for implementing game theory across a variety of industries and fields. Including innovative studies on economics, military strategy, and political science, this multi-volume book is an ideal source for professionals, practitioners, graduate students, academics, and researchers interested in the applications of game theory.

Set Functions, Games and Capacities in Decision Making

Author: Michel Grabisch

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319306901

Category: Mathematics

Page: 473

View: 2044

The book provides a thorough treatment of set functions, games and capacities as well as integrals with respect to capacities and games, in a mathematical rigorous presentation and in view of application to decision making. After a short chapter introducing some required basic knowledge (linear programming, polyhedra, ordered sets) and notation, the first part of the book consists of three long chapters developing the mathematical aspects. This part is not related to a particular application field and, by its neutral mathematical style, is useful to the widest audience. It gathers many results and notions which are scattered in the literature of various domains (game theory, decision, combinatorial optimization and operations research). The second part consists of three chapters, applying the previous notions in decision making and modelling: decision under uncertainty, decision with multiple criteria, possibility theory and Dempster-Shafer theory.