World Economic Outlook October 2014

Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9781498331555

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 222

View: 9806

Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in 2014-15, according to the April 2014 WEO, with much of the impetus for growth coming from advanced economies. Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies, there is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, and increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth. Advanced economy policymakers need to avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Emerging market economy policymakers must adopt measures to changing fundamentals, facilitate external adjustment, further monetary policy tightening, and carry out structural reforms. The report includes a chapter that analyzes the causes of worldwide decreases in real interest rates since the 1980s and concludes that global rates can be expected to rise in the medium term, but only moderately. Another chapter examines factors behind the fluctuations in emerging market economies' growth and concludes that strong growth in China played a key role in buffering the effects of the global financial crisis in these economies

World Economic Outlook, October 2014:

Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484380665

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 242

View: 9265

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

World Economic Outlook, October 2014: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties

Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 149838501X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 236

View: 8870

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

World Economic Outlook, October 1986

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1455290971

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 119

View: 2592

This paper highlights that economic developments in the first half of 1986 were disappointing in a number of respects. Despite the stimulus from lower interest rates and lower oil prices, the pace of activity in the industrial countries slowed. This contributed to continuing sluggishness in the growth of world trade and a further weakening of primary commodity prices. Falling export earnings in developing countries worsened the outlook for the restoration of generalized creditworthiness and for the resumption of a satisfactory growth performance.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014

Staying the Course

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484392302

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 110

View: 4692

Growth in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain strong, driven by efforts to invest in infrastructure and strong agricultural production. The current Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is exacting a heavy toll, with spillovers to neighboring countries. External threats to the region's overall positive outlook include global financial conditions and a slowdown in emerging market growth.

Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2014

Middle East and Central Asia

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1498302327

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 120

View: 9925

This issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income oil exporters, primarily in the GCC, continue to record steady growth and solid economic and financial fundamentals, albeit with medium-term challenges that need to be addressed. In contrast, other countries—Iraq, Libya, and Syria—are mired in conflicts with not only humanitarian but also economic consequences. And yet other countries, mostly oil importers, are making continued but uneven progress in advancing their economic agendas, often in tandem with political transitions and amidst difficult social conditions. In most of these countries, without extensive economic and structural reforms, economic prospects for the medium term remain insufficient to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards.

World Economic Outlook, October 2013

Transitions and Tensions

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484385896

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 247

View: 8743

Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

Fiscal Monitor, October 2014

Back to Work: How Fiscal Policy Can Help

Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1498342205

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 112

View: 7541

At a time when job creation tops the policy agenda globally, this issue of the Fiscal Monitor explores if and how fiscal policy can do more for jobs. It finds that while fiscal policy cannot substitute for comprehensive reforms, it can support job creation in a number of ways. First, deficit reduction can be designed and timed to minimize negative effects on employment. Second, fiscal policy can facilitate structural reforms in the labor market by offsetting their potential short term costs. And third, targeted fiscal measures, including labor tax cuts, can help tackle challenges in specific segments of the labor market, such as youth and older workers.

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2014:

Risk Taking, Liquidity, and Shadow Banking: Curbing Excess while Promoting Growth

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1498390056

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 192

View: 3654

The October 2014 issue finds that six years after the start of the crisis, the global economic recovery continues to rely heavily on accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies. Monetary accommodation remains critical in supporting economies by encouraging economic risk taking in the form of increased real spending by households and greater willingness to invest and hire by businesses. However, prolonged monetary ease may also encourage excessive financial risk taking. Analytical chapters examine (1) the growth of shadow banking around the globe, assessing risks and discussing regulatory responses, and calling for a more encompassing (macroprudential) approach to regulation and for enhanced data provision; and (2) how conflicts of interest among bank managers, shareholders, and debt holders can lead to excessive bank risk taking from society’s point of view, finding no clear relation between bank risk and the level of executive compensation, but that a better alignment of bankers’ pay with long-term outcomes is associated with less risk.

Republic of Poland: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Poland

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484344197

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 66

View: 5622

KEY ISSUES Background: Poland’s strong fundamentals and sound policies helped it to successfully withstand several bouts of market turbulence and paved the way for economic recovery. While Poland has benefited from its continued transformation into a more open and dynamic economy, its substantial trade and financial linkages with global markets, combined with still-large financing needs, also make it vulnerable to external shocks. Outlook and risks: With only modest growth in its trading partners, economic activity in Poland is expected to remain moderate in the near term. Risks remain tilted to the downside amid concerns about a protracted slowdown in the euro area, continued geopolitical tensions in the region, and uncertainty surrounding normalization of monetary policy in the United States. Domestically, the risk of continued disinflation remains high. Flexible Credit Line (FCL): Against this background, the authorities are requesting a new two-year precautionary FCL arrangement with proposed lower access in the amount of SDR 15.5 billion (918 percent of quota) and cancellation of the current arrangement, approved on January 18, 2013. Poland’s improved economic fundamentals and increased policy buffers have reduced financing needs. However, external risks remain elevated. In this context, the authorities consider that a new FCL in the requested amount would provide an important insurance against external risks, help sustain market confidence, and support their economic strategy. At the same time, the authorities consider that the substantial reduction in access sends a clear signal of their intention to fully exit from the FCL once external risks recede. In staff’s view, Poland continues to meet the qualification criteria for access under the FCL arrangement. Fund liquidity: The impact of the proposed commitment of SDR 15.5 billion on Fund liquidity would be manageable. Process: An informal meeting to consult with the Executive Board on a possible FCL arrangement for Poland was held on December 19, 2014.

East Asia and Pacific Economic Update October 2014

Enhancing Competitiveness in an Uncertain World

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

ISBN: 1464804303

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 165

View: 4510

In China, growth will gradually moderate, reflecting intensified policy efforts to address financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints, and place the economy on a more sustainable growth path. In the rest of the region, growth will pick up, as exports firm in line with strengthening global activity, and the impact of domestic adjustment in large ASEAN countries eases. Significant uncertainties remain about the sustainability of the global recovery, and global financial conditions are likely to tighten. The short-term priority in several countries is to address the vulnerabilities and inefficiencies created by an extended period of loose financial conditions and fiscal stimulus. In China, the authorities need to strike a balance between containing growing risks from rising leverage and meeting the indicative growth targets. Over the longer term, the focus in most countries must be on structural reforms to enhance export competitiveness. The report’s special section focuses on education & skills development; international migration; and the policy priorities for the Pacific Island Countries.

South Africa: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Informational Annex; Debt Sustainability Analysis; Staff Statement; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1475569149

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 93

View: 9716

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that South Africa’s growth has slowed in recent years, specifically relative to other emerging markets. Although weak trading partners’ growth contributed to the slowdown, increasingly binding structural constraints, such as protracted strikes and electricity constraints, have been important factors. Unemployment remains high at 25.5 percent. Notwithstanding expenditure discipline, the general government budget deficit was 4.5 percent of GDP in 2013, and public debt rose to 45 percent of GDP from 27 percent in 2008. The outlook is lackluster with considerable risks. Growth is projected to slow to 1.4 percent in 2014 and rebound only modestly to 2.1 percent in 2015 on improved industrial relations.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2013

Sub-Saharan Africa: Keeping the Pace

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484350952

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 126

View: 4306

The October 2013 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa provides a comprehensive report on the prospects for growth in the region, as well as the major risks to the outlook. Generally, growth is expected to remain strong despite a downward revision since the May 2013 report. The report analyzes drivers of growth in nonresource-rich sub-Saharan African countries, and examines the risks to frontier market economies of volatile capital flows as they become more integrated with international capital markets.

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2014

Corrosive Subsidies

Author: Shantayanan Devarajan

Publisher: World Bank Publications

ISBN: 1464804427

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 40

View: 8381

The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015 is slightly more favorable than in 2013-14, when the region as a whole grew at 3 percent a year. The World Bank group’s latest MENA Economic Monitor projects MENA’s economic growth to average 5.2 percent in 2015 driven by domestic consumption, easing political tensions crowding-in investments in Egypt and Tunisia, and full resumption of oil production in Libya. However the violent conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Libya with their spillovers to Lebanon and Jordan could make MENA’s economic prospects bleak. The report has a special focus on the corrosive nature of the large energy subsidies in MENA. The MENA region is currently experiencing growth below potential, high unemployment, urban air pollution and congestion, and severe water scarcity that is undermining agriculture. The report shows how energy subsidies have contributed to these development challenges. Reforming these subsidies, therefore, should be one of the highest priorities of policymakers.

Europe's Crisis, Europe's Future

Author: Kemal Dervis,Jacques Mistral

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

ISBN: 0815725558

Category: Political Science

Page: 212

View: 1775

Can the eurozone's emergence from crisis turn into a real economic recovery and a new vision for Europe's future? Or is Europe heading for a "lost decade" in terms of growth and a rise in old style nationalism? Kemal Dervis and Jacques Mistral have assembled an international group of economic analysts who provide perspectives on the most audacious supranational governance experiment in history. Will the crisis mark the end of the dream of "ever closer union" or lead to a renewed impetus to integrate, perhaps taking novel forms? Among the key issues explored are the · Onset, evolution, and ramifications of the euro crisis from the perspective of three countries especially hard hit—Greece, Italy, and Spain. · Concerns, priorities, and issues in France and Germany, the couple that has so far always driven European integration. · Effects and lessons in two key policy areas: banking union and social policies. The volume concludes with a possible renewed vision for the EU in the 2020s, including much greater political integration but where some countries may keep their national currencies and share less of their sovereignty. It is a vision of two Europes within one, ready for the twenty-first century.

World Economic Outlook, April 2014: Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven

Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1475515766

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 232

View: 3072

Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in 2014–15, according to the April 2014 WEO, with much of the impetus for growth coming from advanced economies. Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies, there is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, and increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth. Advanced economy policymakers need to avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Emerging market economy policymakers must adopt measures to changing fundamentals, facilitate external adjustment, further monetary policy tightening, and carry out structural reforms. The report includes a chapter that analyzes the causes of worldwide decreases in real interest rates since the 1980s and concludes that global rates can be expected to rise in the medium term, but only moderately. Another chapter examines factors behind the fluctuations in emerging market economies’ growth and concludes that strong growth in China played a key role in buffering the effects of the global financial crisis in these economies.