Understanding Uncertainty

Author: Dennis V. Lindley

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118650123

Category: Mathematics

Page: 424

View: 5650


Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." —Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.

Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management

Author: Terje Aven,Enrico Zio

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119317894

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 360

View: 6068


Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focus on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty

An Introduction to Statistical, Phenomenological and Computational Methods

Author: Etienne de Rocquigny

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470695145

Category: Mathematics

Page: 434

View: 2478


"This volume addresses a concern of very high relevance and growing interest for large industries or environmentalists: risk and uncertainty in complex systems. It gives new insight on the peculiar mathematical challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis, focusing on implementing decision theory choices related to risk and uncertainty analysis through statistical estimation and computation, in the presence of physical modeling and risk analysis. The result will lead statisticians and associated professionals to formulate and solve new challenges at the frontier between statistical modeling, physics, scientific computing, and risk analysis"--

Spatial and Spatio-temporal Bayesian Models with R - INLA

Author: Marta Blangiardo,Michela Cameletti

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118950216

Category: Mathematics

Page: 320

View: 2512


Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Models withR-INLA provides a much needed, practically oriented& innovative presentation of the combination of Bayesianmethodology and spatial statistics. The authors combine anintroduction to Bayesian theory and methodology with a focus on thespatial and spatio­-temporal models used within the Bayesianframework and a series of practical examples which allow the readerto link the statistical theory presented to real data problems. Thenumerous examples from the fields of epidemiology, biostatisticsand social science all are coded in the R package R-INLA, which hasproven to be a valid alternative to the commonly used Markov ChainMonte Carlo simulations

Bayesian Theory

Author: José M. Bernardo,Adrian F. M. Smith

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 047031771X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 608

View: 3116


This highly acclaimed text, now available in paperback, provides a thorough account of key concepts and theoretical results, with particular emphasis on viewing statistical inference as a special case of decision theory. Information-theoretic concepts play a central role in the development of the theory, which provides, in particular, a detailed discussion of the problem of specification of so-called prior ignorance . The work is written from the authors s committed Bayesian perspective, but an overview of non-Bayesian theories is also provided, and each chapter contains a wide-ranging critical re-examination of controversial issues. The level of mathematics used is such that most material is accessible to readers with knowledge of advanced calculus. In particular, no knowledge of abstract measure theory is assumed, and the emphasis throughout is on statistical concepts rather than rigorous mathematics. The book will be an ideal source for all students and researchers in statistics, mathematics, decision analysis, economic and business studies, and all branches of science and engineering, who wish to further their understanding of Bayesian statistics

Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data

Author: Noel Cressie,Christopher K. Wikle

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0471692743

Category: Mathematics

Page: 588

View: 1988


Throughout the book, interesting applications demonstrate the relevance of the presented concepts. Vivid, full-color graphics emphasize the visual nature of the topic, and a related FTP site contains supplementary material.

Understanding Statistical Error

A Primer for Biologists

Author: Marek Gierlinski

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119106915

Category: Medical

Page: 224

View: 4771


This accessible introductory textbook provides a straightforward, practical explanation of how statistical analysis and error measurements should be applied in biological research. Understanding Statistical Error - A Primer for Biologists: Introduces the essential topic of error analysis to biologists Contains mathematics at a level that all biologists can grasp Presents the formulas required to calculate each confidence interval for use in practice Is based on a successful series of lectures from the author’s established course Assuming no prior knowledge of statistics, this book covers the central topics needed for efficient data analysis, ranging from probability distributions, statistical estimators, confidence intervals, error propagation and uncertainties in linear regression, to advice on how to use error bars in graphs properly. Using simple mathematics, all these topics are carefully explained and illustrated with figures and worked examples. The emphasis throughout is on visual representation and on helping the reader to approach the analysis of experimental data with confidence. This useful guide explains how to evaluate uncertainties of key parameters, such as the mean, median, proportion and correlation coefficient. Crucially, the reader will also learn why confidence intervals are important and how they compare against other measures of uncertainty. Understanding Statistical Error - A Primer for Biologists can be used both by students and researchers to deepen their knowledge and find practical formulae to carry out error analysis calculations. It is a valuable guide for students, experimental biologists and professional researchers in biology, biostatistics, computational biology, cell and molecular biology, ecology, biological chemistry, drug discovery, biophysics, as well as wider subjects within life sciences and any field where error analysis is required.

Operational subjective statistical methods

a mathematical, philosophical, and historical introduction

Author: Frank Lad

Publisher: Wiley-Interscience

ISBN: 9780471143291

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 484

View: 2066


The mathematical implications of personal beliefs and values in science and commerce Amid a worldwide resurgence of interest in subjectivist statistical method, this book offers a fresh look at the role of personal judgments in statistical analysis. Frank Lad demonstrates how philosophical attention to meaning provides a sensible assessment of the prospects and procedures of empirical inferential learning. Operational Subjective Statistical Methods offers a systematic investigation of Bruno de Finetti's theory of probability and logic of uncertainty, which recognizes probability as the measure of personal uncertainty at the heart of its mathematical presentation. It identifies de Finetti's "fundamental theorem of coherent provision" as the unifying structure of probabilistic logic, and highlights the judgment of exchangeability rather than causal independence as the key probabilistic component of statistical inference. Broad in scope, yet firmly grounded in mathematical detail, this text/reference Invites readers to address the subjective personalist meaning of probability as motivating the mathematical construction * Contains numerous examples and problems, including computing problems using Matlab, assuming no background in Matlab * Explains how to use the material in three distinct sequential courses in math and statistics, as well as in courses at the graduate level in applied fields * Provides an introductory basis for understanding more complex structures of statistical analysis Complete with fifty illustrations, Operational Subjective Statistical Methods makes an intriguing discipline accessible to professionals, students, and the interested general reader. It contains a wealth of teaching and research material, and offers profound insight into the relationship between philosophy, faith, and scientific method.